Ambiguous Outcome
An ambiguous outcome occurs when the market rules do not uniquely determine a result for real world edge cases.
Definition
An ambiguous outcome happens when the market rules do not clearly map real world events to a single settlement result. Ambiguity can come from vague wording, missing time windows, or unclear oracle definitions.
Why it matters
Ambiguous outcomes increase dispute frequency and reduce user trust. They also invite manipulation attempts through interpretation battles rather than forecasting skill.
How to spot ambiguity
• Look for undefined terms, such as major, official, or confirmed.
• Check whether the rule covers postponements, cancellations, revisions, or partial results.
• Confirm the oracle and what happens if sources conflict.
Common pitfalls
Assuming intent: Rules settle markets, not headlines or community expectations.
Ignoring corner cases: Edge cases are where ambiguity shows up.