Audit Trail
An audit trail is a tamper resistant record of forecasts, timestamps, and edits. It supports trust and prevents cherry picking.
Definition
An audit trail is a record that preserves what was predicted, when it was predicted, and how (or if) it was later changed.
Why it matters
Forecasting leaderboards and scorecards only work if the record is trustworthy. Without an audit trail, it is easy to remove bad forecasts or rewrite history, creating selection bias.
What to capture
• forecast timestamp
• probability value and any updates
• question identifier
• source (manual, import, API)
Related
Audit trails help detect data leakage and prevent look ahead bias in backtests.