Baseline Forecast
A baseline forecast is a simple reference model used for comparison, such as 50/50, base rate, or market consensus. It is the denominator in skill scoring.
Definition
A baseline forecast is a simple reference probability used to evaluate whether you add value. It is the forecast you compare against when reporting skill.
Common baselines
• 50/50 for all events
• empirical base rate (climatology)
• market consensus derived from prices
Why it matters
Raw Brier score depends on the question set. Baselines provide context and power Brier skill score.
Related
This term overlaps with benchmark. Use that page as the primary definition if you prefer one canonical term.