Forecast Dispersion
Forecast dispersion measures how spread out probabilities are across questions or forecasters. Low dispersion can indicate herding or low sharpness.
Definition
Forecast dispersion describes how spread out probability forecasts are. Dispersion can be measured for a single forecaster across their own predictions, or across a group of forecasters for the same question.
Why it matters
• Very low dispersion across a crowd can indicate herding.
• Very low dispersion for an individual can indicate low sharpness.
• Some dispersion is healthy when people have different information or models.
Related
Dispersion connects to sharpness, crowd wisdom, and market consensus.