Forecast Distribution
Forecast distribution is the histogram or density of predicted probabilities. It is a simple way to visualize sharpness and detect overuse of 50%.
Definition
Forecast distribution is the distribution of your predicted probabilities, usually shown as a histogram across bins (0.0 to 0.1, 0.1 to 0.2, and so on).
Why it matters
The distribution helps diagnose forecasting style:
• Heavy clustering around 0.50 suggests low sharpness.
• Many forecasts near 0 or 1 can indicate extreme confidence and higher risk of overconfidence.
• A balanced spread can reflect differentiated beliefs.
How it is used in scorecards
Scorecards often pair forecast distribution with calibration buckets to show whether confident calls are justified.
Related
Forecast distribution connects to sharpness, extreme probabilities, and calibration.