Forecast Horizon
Forecast horizon is the time between when a probability forecast is made and when the event resolves. Longer horizons are typically harder and should be compared separately.
Definition
Forecast horizon is the time gap between when you issue a forecast and when the binary event is settled.
Why it matters
Forecasts made 5 minutes before resolution are not comparable to forecasts made 30 days before resolution. Information arrives over time, so longer horizons usually have higher uncertainty and tend to produce worse scores.
How to use it in evaluation
When comparing forecasters or strategies, segment results by horizon bands, for example:
• short horizon (same day)
• medium horizon (1 to 7 days)
• long horizon (8+ days)
Related
Horizon interacts with market consensus and with scoring metrics like Brier score and log loss.