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Market Price

Market price is the tradable price you reference, such as mid, bid, or ask, on the platform price scale.

Definition

Market price is the price you use as a reference when translating to implied probability. If you have bid and ask, you often reference mid price, or use ask or bid for a conservative comparison.

Why it matters

Market price is the baseline for measuring edge and for computing break even probability. In thin markets, market price can be unstable due to low liquidity.

Common pitfalls

Using one print: A last traded price can differ from current bid and ask.

Ignoring spread: Trading at bid or ask changes the implied probability you actually face.