Participation Rate
Participation rate is how often a user submits forecasts over time or across eligible questions. It complements score metrics by capturing consistency and engagement.
Definition
Participation rate measures how frequently a forecaster participates. Depending on context, it can mean forecasts per week, active days, or forecasts as a share of eligible questions.
Why it matters
Two forecasters can have similar scores, but one may only forecast occasionally. Participation rate helps interpret track records and reduces the risk that results are driven by sparse, cherry picked activity.
How to use it
• Report participation alongside Brier score.
• Pair it with coverage to capture both frequency and breadth.
• Use rolling windows to show consistency over time.
Related
Participation rate is closely connected to coverage, selection bias, and rolling evaluation.