Payout
Payout is the amount a contract or share returns at settlement, based on the resolved outcome under the market rules.
Definition
Payout is what a prediction market contract returns when the market resolves and settles, based on the outcome defined in the market rules.
Binary payout example
• In a typical yes no contract, the YES side may pay 1 if the event happens and 0 otherwise (or equivalent units depending on platform).
Why it matters for pricing
Prices are often interpreted relative to payout. That is why the contract price is frequently treated as implied probability in binary markets.
Costs still matter
Your net result depends on payout minus what you paid, including all in cost (spread, slippage, and fees).
Common pitfalls
Assuming payout is obvious: Always confirm the exact definition of the event and the settlement source.
Ignoring costs: Even correct predictions can lose money if execution and fees are too high.