Posterior Probability
Posterior probability is the updated probability after incorporating evidence.
Definition
Posterior probability is the updated probability you get after applying evidence to a prior probability. It is computed through Bayes theorem using odds and a likelihood ratio.
Why it matters
Posterior probability provides a disciplined way to update beliefs when new information arrives, instead of reacting emotionally to headlines.
Common pitfalls
Treating evidence as certainty: Likelihood ratios shift odds, they do not guarantee outcomes.