Settlement Source
Settlement source is the official data reference used to decide the outcome at settlement, such as a named website, exchange price, or official record.
Definition
Settlement source is the official reference used by a prediction market to determine the outcome at settlement. It is explicitly defined in the market rules.
Examples
• An official government publication or election authority website.
• A specified market price on a named exchange at a specific timestamp.
• A final score from a named sports data provider.
Why it matters
Settlement source removes ambiguity by specifying “which fact counts”. If the source is unclear, disputes become more likely and confidence in payouts decreases.
Common pitfalls
Assuming common sense: What seems obvious may not match the listed source and rule wording.
Ignoring timestamps: Many rules depend on a specific cut off time and exact snapshot.