Forecast Update
A forecast update is a revision to a probability estimate as new information arrives. Good forecasting is iterative and records updates over time.
Definition
A forecast update is when you revise a probability forecast after receiving new information. Updates are a normal part of good forecasting because evidence and context change over time.
Why it matters
Prediction is dynamic. If you do not update, you may become miscalibrated as conditions shift. If you update too aggressively, you risk overconfidence and noise chasing.
How to track it
When evaluating forecasters, it is helpful to store:
• timestamp of each update
• old probability and new probability
• horizon to settlement
Related
Updates connect to forecast horizon and can be evaluated with Brier score at fixed checkpoints.